- Comment
By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman The lone graded stakestaking place in the United States this Saturday is the $200,000 Pennine Ridge(G2) at Aqueduct ("Belmont at the Big A"). Most of the graded stakesaction across the country is being saved for Memorial Day, but we'll give the 11/8-mile Pennine Ridge our attention because of its intriguing field and statusas an important steppingstone toward the July 6 Belmont Derby (G1) at Aqueduct.Since the Pennine Ridge was inaugurated in 2014, Mr Speaker (2014), OscarPerformance (2017), Catholic Boy (2018), Henley's Joy (2019) and Far Bridge(2023) have all used the race as a springboard to Belmont Derby glory. Seven horses have enteredthe 2024 Pennine Ridge. There are a few promising up-and-comers in the entries,but Godolphin colorbearer #2 Legend ofTime (2-1)—the most accomplished horse in the field—is my top pick eventhough he exits a defeat at short odds.
Under the care of CharlieAppleby, who wins at a 37% rate with his North American starters, Legend ofTime started his career on a promising note abroad. Competing in the UnitedKingdom and Dubai, he won four of his five starts over distances from 1,400meters (about seven furlongs) to 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles). Legend of Time'svictory over the latter distance came in the Jumeirah Classic at Meydan, astakes in which he saved ground behind the pacesetter before splitting horsesto dominate by 4 3/4 lengths.
Legend of Time made his U.S.debut in the American Turf (G2) at Churchill Downs three weeks ago. He startedas the 5-4 favorite, but appeared unsettled while pressing the pace outside insecond place. When called upon for his best run in the homestretch, Legend ofTime failed to respond and weakened in the final furlong to finish fifth byfive lengths.
I'm optimistic Legend ofTime will fare much better in the Pennine Ridge. He's based in the U.S. now, sohe's had more time to acclimate to the conditions here. He even worked an easyfive furlongs at Saratoga last Saturday. And he's picking up jockey JoelRosario, who has won the Pennine Ridge twice aboard Decorated Invader (2020)and Sainthood (2021).
The one difficulty I see inLegend of Time's path to victory is the lack of early speed in the PennineRidge field. There isn't a single proven pacesetter in the field, which isunfortunate since an honest pace would give Legend of Time every chance to tuckin behind the leader and pounce to victory down the homestretch, like he did inthe Jumeirah Classic.
But maybe the lack of pacewill prove to be a blessing in disguise. On paper, Legend of Time appears tohave more early speed than anyone else, so there's a chance he'll shake looseon an utterly uncontested lead. If he can settle on the front end through slowfractions, he may prove impossible to catch.
Or, perhaps we'll see thereasonably tactical #1 White Palomino (6-1) assume the early lead from the raildraw, allowing Legend of Time to slot in behind him from post 2. If such a tripallows Legend of Time to settle, then giving up an easy lead to White Palominomight be worthwhile, as I'm willing to bet a comfortable Legend of Time willhave enough in reserve to outkick White Palomino in a flying finish.
In any case, my money willbe riding on Legend of Time to bounce back and deliver victory in the PennineRidge. It's not the most creative opinion, but I'm hoping his defeat at shortodds in the American Turf will prompt caution from some bettors, allowingLegend of Time to start to playable odds. I think he has around a 40-45% chanceof winning the Pennine Ride, so his 2-1 morning line odds are appealing.
For second place, I'm keento support the above-mentioned White Palomino. Sure, he finished third behind #7 Triple Espresso (4-1) in his debut racing 1 1/16 miles overthe Gulfstream Park turf course. But Triple Espressor has proven to be a decentstakes horse, finishing only a head behind future Preakness (G1) winner Seizethe Grey when fourth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), and White Palomino's secondstart yielded a sharp maiden victory racing 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland.
In that win, White Palominowas never more than two lengths behind a decent tempo before finishing up nicelyto score by two lengths. The son of Kitten's Joy is progressing in the rightdirection and should have enough tactical speed to work out a favorable tripunder jockey Flavien Prat, a 36% winner at Aqueduct since May 2.
Triple Espresso also has a strongshot to finish in the top three. His Jeff Ruby effort wasn't bad, and beforethat he finished a pace-compromised by fourth (beaten only three lengths) in aremarkably slow early/fast late edition of the one-mile Colonel Liam S. Themain downside to Triple Espresso is his lack of tactical speed; he's closedfrom far back in five of his six starts, and that could be problematic giventhe lack of pace entered in the Pennine Ridge. But talent alone can land him aspot in the trifecta.
Now it's your turn! Who doyou like in the Pennine Ridge?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. fa*ger to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
